LAST GOOD WEEK OF THE YEAR TO TRY A CASE

 The last good week of the year to try a case is next week. Everyone, including jurors, are in a holiday mood.  Answer ready for trial. 

The prior post answer to the quiz (RCA 1929 report) also yielded the nugget that Rumpole is reading Andrew Ross Sorkin's bestseller 1929 on the 1929 crash. The book reads like a mystery thriller. And this is the perfect subject for our Financial Thursday ( (c) Rumpole & REGJB Blog 2025) blog post. 

Want to make money? Be a contrarian. Go left when everyone goes right and remember Warren Buffet's great lines about his philosophy: When people are greedy, be fearful. When people are fearful, be greedy.

We are NOT in 1929 with the AI stocks. We are looking at this time with Nvidia, AVGO (Broadcom), Marvel, Taiwan Semi Conductor, and AMD, similar to the time of Microsoft and Apple circa 1995. We are on the cusp of a revolution that will change everything from how you practice law, to how McDonalds gets you your Big Mac, fries, and coke, and everything in between.  Heart surgery; creation of movies; travel; house cleaning; investing; restaurant reservations; medical decisions; schooling- you name it- AI will change it. 

Without anyone knowing, we have sprinkled our posts these last few months with those created entirely by AI. Chat GBT is given this blog address and then asked to create a post on farming in our voice, and it does such a good job, even we were fooled. 

So here is the thing. Find your AI stock. A chip stock, a software stock for AI, a switch stock like Arista Networks, an energy company or a construction company that is constructing the buildings housing the AI centers. Slowly accumulate a nice position and then email us in 2030 thanking us for helping you make your first ten million.  Buying Apple or Amazon in 1999 would not have made you tens of millions in 2002, but it would have done so by now, and even earlier- like 2015. So pick your horse and get on and ride. 

FYI Here's your AI generated post on farming in our voice: 

Ah, farming, dear reader — that ancient profession far more honest than anything occurring on the ninth floor of the Justice Building. While we lawyers till our briefs and sow our motions in the stony soil of judicial temperament, the humble farmer rises with the sun, not to face a docket of squabbling counsel, but to coax life itself from the earth. No discovery disputes, no surprise witnesses, no ASA claiming “Your Honor, the victim wants the max.” Only weather, soil, sweat, and the eternal hope that this year’s crop will fare better than last term’s trial schedule. And between you and me, if judges possessed half the patience of a man waiting for his corn to grow, we’d all get out of hearings in time for a Cafecito. 

A SHORT BLOG MEDIA QUIZ

AND THE ANSWER IS: RADIO! RCA's annual report 1929. 

And you can find that and read a truly thrilling historical account of the 1929 crash that reads like a novel in Andrew Ross Sorkin's bestseller 1929. If you want to read what Rumpole reads, grab this book for your holiday reading, and you can thank us on January 1.

 Which company's annual report stated the following? 

" Radio/Television/Facebook/Instagram/Tik Tok/ (pick one) has helped create a vast new audience of a magnitude which was never dreamed off...this audience, invisible but attentive, differs not only in size but in kind from any audience the world has ever known, a linking up of millions of homes and people."

A. RCA's annual report in 1929;

B. Colombia Broadcast Systems' (CBS) annual report 1950.

C. Facebook's annual report 2013;

D. Meta's (owns Instagram) annual report 2014;

E. ByteDance's (Chinese Company that owns Tik Tok) annual report 2022;

IMAGINE

 Imagine if this "unspeakable tragedy" had not occurred forty-five years ago this Monday night- as announced by Howard Cosell on Monday Night Football as a college freshman Rumpole watched in shock and sadness.  

NFL WEEK 14 2025

UPDATE:  👑 We have a winner in the 2025 award winning, famous REGJB Survivor Pool, and for the third (?) time, it is your humble blogger 👑 Rumpole. And we are a bit sad. Dan Tibbet played a very strategic game. He went 14 games deep into a difficult season, and he would have been a worthy champion. But maybe in what is shaping up to be Rumpole's swan song season in football/blog related activities, this was bound to happen. It was a good win against a deep field of experienced players. We hope the new blog operators continue what is now a twenty-plus year blog and REGJB tradition.  👑 We shut down our iconic email FBpool12@gmail.com for maybe the last time, and say maybe we will see you next year, and maybe we won't. Adventure beyond the confines of Miami and the REGJB awaits! 👑 

We are feeling very good this football Sunday. Early in 2024 someone whispered "Indiana" in our ear, and we have been riding the Hoosiers football team like our investment in Nvidia circa 2015. Last night we had the Hoosiers with the money line over Ohio State. While we still think the Buckeyes are the best college football tram in the nation, we cashed on the Hoosiers and ordered the king crab legs in a late-night repast. 

Survivor Pool: Ace Appellate Lawyer Dan Tibbett refuses to lose, as does Rumpole, so on we go into week 14. DT picks the Bucs at home, and Rumpole picks the Broncos to bounce back in Las Vegas. 

Today we like the Seahawks - 6.5 at the reeling Atlanta Falcons. 

We also like the J E T S Jets Jets Jets at home over your Miami Dolphins. We were at the Fins last week and watched them do just about everything they could to throw away the game to the Saints (and they costs us money, blowing a 4th Q 9 point lead, only to pull out a 4 point win when we were laying 5). The Jets are having a bit of resurgence, so we will take them, at a cold Meadowlands in New Jersey +2.5 over Miami. 

We are also going to do a $20 parlay Seattle & Jets. 

For our longshot today, Bengals +225 money line at Buffalo. Cincy is not out of the playoff race yet, and Joe Burrough is back with his two all pro wide receivers. Buffalo...? We cannot explain why they are up and down this year, when they should have run away with the AFC. But they are. So we are going with Who Dey? today.

The weather in Buffalo (snow ❄) and Jax (rain ⛆) has us taking Under 54.5 Bills/Bengals and under 45.5 Indy/Jax. 

For Monday night we are watching the Eagles /Chargers line. Philly is -2.5 on the road. We think the smart money will go on Philly, so if the line moves, we will start taking the Eagles. 

Who's traveling for the holidays? 

THE CARRY TRADE

 Our readers asked for more financial/investment content. You ask/we deliver.* 

To explain a Carry Trade, we need to define terms. 1) Selling short. A stock or bond goes up or down. An experienced investor who thinks the stock/bond is going to go down can sell it without owning it. Really. It's called selling short. If you think XYZ that has a price of 100 is going down, you sell it at 100 and get the hundred bucks. That's a good part. Let's say you're right and the stock falls to 90. You buy it at 90 and the ten dollars is your profit. Sold at 100 & bought at 90. The downside is let's say you're wrong and the stock goes to 110, then you have lost 10 dollars. The risk in this trade is that your potential loss is unlimited as the stock can just keep going up. Selling short is for experienced traders only. We do it very rarely. Global Crossing way back in the 90's. Snap about ten years ago. 

Okay, still with us? 

There's a group of traders controlling a large amount of money- as much as 100 billion dollars. For almost all of 2010-2025, the Bank Of Japan (BOJ- Japan's equivalent of our fed) kept Japan's interest rate very low- around 1%. During that time the rate of a standard US Treasury Bond was between 4-6%. 

SO, the traders SOLD the Japanese bond at 1% and got the cash. They BOUGHT the US Treasury at say 4% and the difference in the price (called arbitrage) was profit. For example. Sell a thousand-dollar Japanese bond at 1% and pay ten dollars a year in 1% interest. Buy a US Treasury bond for the thousand dollars you got from the Japanese bond at 4% and collect 4% interest/ forty dollars a year. A thirty dollar a year profit!  Now do that for 50 billion dollars and you are making some Rumpole type money.  This is called The Carry Trade. 

BUT what happens when the BOJ decides to raise rates? As Scooby Doo would say "ruup ro!"  The sharp traders bopping along making their 3% arbitrage profit while sipping margaritas in Cabo and looking for their next Lambo have a problem. They need to raise cash to unwind the trade. They have to buy back those billions in Japanese bonds they have sold short. So they SELL their US stocks where they have put their profits (it's complicated why they can't sell their US bonds- they can, but the price will be falling, and they don't want to take another loss) so what happens when a few large firms start dumping billions of US equities? The stock market falls. No Santa Claus rally. 😢

This last happened in January of this year, causing the stock market to rapidly fall for no discernable reason after the Yen strengthened in December 2024.  And it may happen again as Japan's new prime minister (their first female PM) takes bold steps to energize the Japanese economy. 

What to do? Not much. What you need to understand is that there is an external force (unwinding the Japanese Carry Trade) causing stocks to fall. Nothing is wrong with the companies whose stock is being sold by the traders who need to close out their positions in Japan. An external and unrelated issue is causing their price to fall. But people who have their money in those stocks get scared and they start selling as well, and the price falls even more. It usually takes about a week for everything to stabilize. 

So what to do(2)? Remember the wise words of the best investor our generation -Warren Buffet. When people are greedy, be fearful. When people are fearful, be greedy. 

Will all of this happen? Maybe. Watch what the BOJ does on interest rates in December. And then watch the market, and if possible, channel your inner Warren Buffet and be greedy.

We may call these our "Financial Thursdays" because "Financial Fridays" is just too obvious. 

*Except when we don't feel like it. 

LEADING BY EXAMPLE

 President Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863 in the President's Office. 

President Truman signed Executive Order 9981 on July 26, 1948, which integrated the US Armed Forces. 

President Eisenhower sent the 101st Airborne to Little Rock Arkansas to enforce Brown v. Board of Education and integrate Central High School over Governor Faubus's refusal to comply with Brown. 

President Kennedy proposed a Civil Rights Bill which President Johnson signed into law as the 1964 Civil Rights Act. 

Martin Luther King dreamed of a world where his children were judged by the content of their character and not the color of their skin. 

President Reagan said "Our nation is a nation of immigrants. More than any other country, our strength comes from our own immigrant heritage and our capacity to welcome those from other lands."

On December 2, 2025, the current president of the United States, during a Cabinet Meeting, called US Representative Ilhan Omar "Garbage" (she is of Somali descent) and then said about the Somali population: "They contribute nothing. I don't want them in our country. Their country is no good for a reason, and I don't want them in our country." 

So much for judging a person as an individual instead of as a class of people. 

Somalis are garbage. 

Irish are drunks. 

Italians are thieves. 

Jews are money hungry. 

Asians are sneaky.

Civil lawyers are pernicious, and people from Hialeah are weird. (Ok, some depictions are truer than not). 

We have a president who is spouting racist tropes as his way of leading by example. America 2025. 

FIRST MONDAY IN DECEMBER AND APPELLATE LAW

 Nothing unusual about the first Monday in December, other than it starts a month of holidays, holiday parties, and a general feeling that work can wait. Which means, for Rumpole, this is the perfect time to try that pesky case that has hung around all year. So take our advice, announce ready, and pick six (or twelve in fed court).

Speaking of federal court, those pesky judges of the Third Circuit ruled today that Alina Habba, the putative US Attorney for New Jersey (Motto: "Yes Mr. President, Of Course Mr. President, Anything You Say Mr. President") was in fact not lawfully appointed and is NOT the US Attorney for New Jersey. The opinion is here.

Habba was appointed an interim US Attorney. Then the term expired. Then the Judges of New Jersey appointed a well-respected and experienced prosecutor in the Office. Then Bondi fired the attorney the Judges appointed. Then Bondi appointed Habba first assistant, making her the de facto (Latin for what Trump wants) US Attorney and also appointed her a Special Attorney For New Jersey. We always knew Habba was special, and this confirmed it. Yuk Yuk Yuk. 

 Then the Judges of New Jersey challenged Bondi to Rock-Paper-Scissors to settle the dispute. Then the score being 2-2, Bondi chose Rock while the Judges went with paper. Then Bondi said Rock can be thrown through paper and "I win. Habba stays." Then there was an appeal in which the 3rd Circuit held that Bondi's actions were designed to thwart the law Congress enacted. The Court further held that "as long as anyone can remember, paper covers rock, and the Judges won fairly and squarely. Habba is out." 

As Bruce sings about New Jersey, "In the day we sweat it out on the streets of a runaway American dream. At night we ride through the mansions of glory in suicide machines. Sprung from cages on highway 9, chrome wheeled, fuel injected and steeping out over the line." 

"The Trump Administration stepped out over the line.  Affirmed. See Born To Run, Bruce Springsteen, August 25, 1975. "

Fun facts: All three members of the panel of the 3rd Circuit have their first name as an initial, which will give rise to conspiracy theorists. The opinion was written by Judge D. Michael Fisher, and was joined by Judges D. Brooks Smith and L. Felipe Restrepo. What do you make of that? VERY VERY suspicious. And has ICE checked on Judge Felipe's immigration status? Just asking. 

Also, we kid you not, one of the Appellees goes by the Nom- de New Jersey as ....wait for it....

"Flipping NJ".

Gotta love appellate law.